Weekend Preview: Top 100 action
Top 100 ranked fighters in action this week(6/21-6/27)
LW
Joe Lauzon(19-6, LW #22) vs. Curt Warburton(7-2 ,LW #51)
Joe Lauzon is looking to rebound from its last loss to George Sotiropoulos at UFC 123. Lauzon has always been considered a fringe contender, but his record does little to support that. His only win in the last two years is over Gabe Ruediger. Previous to that win he lost a decision to Sam Stout. This is a must win fight for Lauzon to stay relevant in the lightweight division. I would not be surprised to see Lauzon consider dropping down to 145 should he lose this fight.
His opponent, Curt Warburton, may not possess a gaudy record, but wins over Maciej Jewtuszko and Ross Pearson(pre-UFC) make him no stopping stone. His only loss in the UFC was to Spencer Fisher, which arguably could have gone his way. It should be noted that Warburton has faced primarily strikers throughout his career, so Lauzon will test his ground game.
It is difficult to know which Joe Lauzon we will see. Will it be the version that lost to Sam Stout, after being beat to the punch and having his takedown repeatedly stuffed or will it be the version that completely dominated Jeremy Stephens?
Charles Oliveira(14-1, LW #26) vs. Nik Lentz(21-3-2, LW #37)
Charles “Da Bronx” Oliveira was all but crowned a future champion following a 14-0 career and 2-0 UFC record. That was until Oliveira faced Jim Miller at UFC 124. For whatever reason, Oliveira let Miller seize an advantageous position on the ground and lock on a kneebar. Oliveira likely was too confident and found himself with his first loss on his official record. Oliveira wants to prove that he is still a title contender, but will likely have to string together a couple more victories to break into title contention.
Not to be overshadowed, though he commonly is, Nik Lentz has gone undefeated in his first six UFC fights. Lentz finds himself in the company of names like Jon Fitch and Gray Maynard amongst others. The reason Lentz has not received a noticeable push by the UFC is due to his suffocating wrestling style. Lentz acknowledges that he is there to win, regardless of his style being pretty. All of Lentz’s UFC fights have gone to decision except his last win over Waylon Lowe, which he was losing up until he caught Lowe with a guilotine choke. Lentz was also gifted a decision at UFC 123 against Tyson Griffin. So, despite a 5-0-1 UFC record, Lentz hardly looks unbeatable.
I think Oliveira is too talented to be taken down and held there by Lentz. Plus, I don’t think Lentz wants to go to the ground with Oliveira’s BJJ skills.
Kazunori Yokota(11-5-3, LW #86) vs. Shoji Maruyama(8-6-1)
Former Sengoku standout Kazunori Yokota returns after a 3-fight losing streak. Prior to those three losses, Yokota had become one of Sengoku’s top lightweight fighters, going 5-1 in the promotion. Yokota was tapped to face Tatsuya Kawajiri in a Dream vs. Sengoku showdown, that Kawajiri won handily. Yokota went on to lose a close decision to Brian Cobb and was then knocked out a few months later against rising prospect Jadamba Narantungalag. Yokota will likely never achieve the status he once held in his native Japan, but he is talented and will look to put together some wins and hopes of saving his career.
His opponent, Shoji Maruyama, usually fights at featherweight, and will likely struggle against Yokota’s experience and strength advantage.
WW
Rick Story(13-3, WW #8) vs. Nate Marquardt(31-10-2, WW #10)
The marquee fight of the weekend features two fighters looking to prove their merits as title contenders at 170. Rick Story and Nate Marquardt may not have been on Georges St.Pierre’s radar as of a year ago, but with Story’s 6-fight win streak and Marquardt’s drop from 185, they are quickly climbing the ranks to seize their opportunity.
Rick Story’s career has been on an upswing ever since losing to fellow prospect John Hathaway in 2009. Solid recent wins over top 15 fighters, Thiago Alves and Johny Hendricks, have proved to naysayers that Story is an elite talent. Story’s fighting style may not be pretty, but it works. He has become more cautious with his offensive attacks, as earlier in his career he was simply all about aggression. Story can still struggle at times with his grappling(Hathaway and Nick Osipczak fights), but against Hendricks, he looked to have truly worked at improving in the clinch. Marquardt will test him in that area, so he needs to be on his game to avoid being hit by a big knee.
Nate Marquardt was a top contender in the middleweight division prior to his cut to 170. He had headlined multiple cards, as the UFC attempted to push him as a title contender. Marquardt was ultimately defeated by two better wrestlers, Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen, which may have pushed his exit to a weight class where he would never have to worry about being overpowered. Marquardt is easily one of the most talented all-around fighters in the sport. Some have questioned his mental game going into big fights, as Dana White did, but Marquardt simply ran up against two better fighters in the division. He was still a top 10 fighter at 185, so his move is questionable, especially with champion GSP fighting out of his same camp.
Rick Story carries a style as of late, very similar to that of Chael Sonnen, grinding his opponents until they wither under the pressure. Marquardt will be huge at 170 though, and the difference between Sonnen and Story’s wrestling is likely significant, therefore I think Marquardt won’t struggle as much with Story’s skills as he will with his own weight cut. That is the huge x-factor in this fight, how will Marquardt feel at 170? Can he push the pace for three rounds? Marquardt’s skills alone should make him the favorite, but throw in this weight cut and it’s a pick’em type of fight.
John Howard(14-6, WW #31) vs. Matt Brown(11-10, WW #68)
Matt Brown accepted this fight on short notice, though he was already training for a fight on this same fight card. Regardless of the date, it is a step up in competition for Brown, something he has not been able to successfully figure out thus far in his career. His opponent, John “Doomsday” Howard is compact and powerful. He’s coming off two losses, though they were to marquee names, Thiago Alves and Jake Ellenberger. Howard is 4-2 in his UFC career, in addition to holding a win over Charlie Brenneman on the independent scene. He has fared well against grapplers, though they have been by razor-thin decisions or Hail Mary shots(Dennis Hallman fight).
There are very few fighters in MMA who are able to earn as much respect as Brown has with an 11-10 overall record. He has made the most of his UFC opportunities though, and has carved out a nice niche as an exciting fighter to watch. Yet, the clock is now ticking for Brown to prove he is more than just exciting, as he’s lost his last 3 fights and needs a win to avoid being released.
Howard has to watch out for Brown’s power, but after holding his own with Alves and Ellenberger, I think he will have little problem negating Brown’s strikes and taking this fight to the ground.
Eduardo Pamplona(14-2, WW #47) vs. Jerron Peoples(1-0)
With less than a week’s notice, Eduardo Pamplona and Jerron Peoples have agreed to fight at Strikeforce Challengers. At first glance, it was amazing that this fight got sanctioned, but after a little research, it is easy to see that Jerron Peoples has talent and is a fighter on the rise, following a successful amateur career. The fact that his handlers believe he is ready to take on an international veteran such as Eduardo Pamplona speaks volumes about Peoples’ skills.
Pamplona was recently featured in our top 10 welterweights that were not signed by a major promotion. His success on the Brazilian scene speaks for itself, and outside of a loss to Robbie Lawler years ago, Pamplona has won 14 of his last 15 bouts. Pamplona is 35 years old now, and will have to call upon every ounce of his experience to take out Peoples. Peoples will likely beat Pamplona to the punch, so Pamplona may be wise to bring this fight to the ground despite his own Muay Thai skills.
Charlie Brenneman(13-2, WW #48) vs. T.J. Grant(16-5, WW #57)
This is a pick’em type of fight, as both fighters are vying to solidify their standing on the crowded UFC roster. It does not help that the five combined wins of Brenneman and Grant, are over fighters already released by the UFC(Amilcar Alves, Jason High, Ryo Chonan, Julio Paulino, Kevin Burns).
Brenneman is a solid wrestler with a ton of heard, but he was blasted by Johny Hendricks in his true step up in competition. It should be noted that Brenneman was forced to stand with Hendricks because he did not have the edge in wrestling. He will have the advantage in this fight.
T.J. Grant is a solid veteran in the sport who has turned into a gatekeeper of sorts for rising prospects. He does not stand out in one overall area, but has shown a good overall game that has stifled many of his opponents. He’s struggled against grapplers, though it could be argued that he deserved the decision over Johny Hendricks in their fight. Grant needs a win here, plain and simple to stay in the UFC. He’s going to have to pull out his bag of tricks and use his experience to evade Brenneman’s top game.
The common opponent amongst Brenneman and Grant is John Hendricks. Brenneman was finished by Hendricks, while Grant arguably beat him. If it were only that easy though to determine how a fight will go. Rather, I stand by the thought, that if Brenneman has the wrestling advantage, he wins.
Jason High(13-3, WW #51) vs. Quinn Mulhern(15-1, WW #65)
Recent Strikeforce signees Jason High and Quinn Mulhern will look to establish themselves as fixtures in the Strikeforce welterweight division, which is desperate for contenders. High is no stranger to fighting on the big stage, as he’s previously fought for the UFC, Dream, and Affliction. Though he’s found mixed success, he does hold wins over Jordan Mein and Hayato Sakurai. High relies heavily on his wrestling, which hides his lackluster striking defense. High has fared well against submission fighters like Andre Galvao and Yuya Shirai, so he has to feel confident going into this fight with Mulhern.
Mulhern has run up an impressive 15-1 record, fighting predominantly for the King of the Cage promotion. His most notable win was over Rich Clementi, though Clementi was going up in weight for the fight. Nonetheless, Mulhern has proven his merits on the independent scene and he has earned the call from Strikeforce. In fact, many fans were disappointed that Mulhern was not included on the UFC’s TUF 12 cast.
This fight is likely going to hit the ground at some point, and we will likely see just how good Mulhern’s BJJ is. High is a grinder and will have the strength advantage in this fight, so it should be a close fight that looks destined to go to a decision, if Mulhern can’t find a submission.
Daniel Roberts(12-2, WW #75) vs. Rich Attonito(9-4, WW #97)
Daniel Roberts and Rich Attonito’s jobs are likely at stake in this fight. Both are coming off losses and can ill-afford to drop two straight.
Prior to his loss to Claude Patrick at UFC 129, Daniel “Ninja” Roberts had won 3-straight fights in the UFC, albeit to fighters no longer with the promotion. Nonetheless, Roberts was beginning to solidify his status as a possible future contender. Roberts has solid grappling, but still lacks fluidity with his striking game.
Attonito arrived on the UFC scene thanks to his inclusion on The Ultimate Fighter 11. He defeated Jamie Yager and Rafael Natal right out of the gate, which sprang life into the former Hofstra wrestler’s MMA career. Unfortunately, Attonito went on to lose his next fight to Dave Branch. Following the loss, Attonito decided to cut to down to welterweight.
The problem for Attonito in this fight, is that Roberts’ style is extremely similar to that of the man he just lost to(Dave Branch). I am not sure how Attonito is going to escape Roberts’ suffocating ground game, unless he lands a lucky haymaker. Roberts has defeated very competent wrestlers like Greg Soto, so Attonito is going to have his work cut out for him in this one.
Josh Neer(29-10-1, WW #77) vs. Jesse Juarez(15-6)
It is difficult to understand why Josh Neer is returning to the welterweight division. Though he was dominated by Bellator lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez, Neer has always been a tough fight for any adversary. At welterweight, Neer just doesn’t have the strength to compete with top level competition. The fact that Neer has already accepted two fights this summer against stiff competition makes one wonder if Neer is simply fighting for money or is truly trying to make a run in the division.
Neer will face Jesse Juarez, who is one of the top prospects at 170. Juarez has been waiting to fight a veteran name like Neer, so he can gain the attention of major promotions. Juarez lost his last fight to Douglas Lima in the MFC, but prior to that had won 9 straight fights on the independent scene.
Though Neer will have the advantage on the ground, he has never backed down from striking exchanges. Juarez is likely the quicker fighter and has a chance to steal this fight.
MW
None
LHW
Lorenz Larkin(9-0, LWH #36) vs. Gian Villante(7-2, LHW #91)
Lorenz Larkin came out of nowhere to TKO Scott Lighty at a Strikeforce challengers event. Larkin had previously competed at heavyweight, where he had knocked out seven of his nine opponents. Larkin wears shorts similar to that of Melvin Manhoef, which has led fans to draw comparisons between Larkin and the former KO artist. There is still a lot of unknowns regarding Larkin’s ground game and conditioning, but those questions will likely be answered against Villante.
Gian Villante was highly-touted by experts, following a successful run in the Ring of Combat promotion. His only career loss was due to an injury, and otherwise had shown flashes of a future star. Villante surprisingly signed on to face Chad Griggs in an alternate bout for the Strikeforce heavyweight tournament. This surprised those who were following Villante’s career, as many had thought his future was a light heavyweight. Nonetheless, Villante took the risk and failed, as he lost an exciting standup war to Griggs. Now, with a full training camp and a true loss on his record, Villante is likely not going to take the risks he had with Griggs. Villante has a strong wrestling background and is a blue belt in BJJ, so I expect him to take this fight to the ground early and look to expose any possible holes in Larkin’s submission defense.
From the limited amount of footage I’ve seen on Larkin, I would not bet against him, as he looks to be one of the future stars of the division. I feel the same for Villante, but his striking is nowhere near Larkin’s at this stage.
HW
Cheick Kongo(15-6-2, HW #19) vs. Pat Barry(6-2, HW #27)
Cheick Kongo and Pat Barry are known as strikers, but I doubt the fight will unfold as many predict. Cheick Kongo has improved his wrestling over the years and showed that against Paul Buentello, Antoni Hardonk, and Mustapha Al-Turk. Though he struggled to show those same skills in his next fight with Travis Browne, it was mainly due to Browne’s solid takedown defense, which is something Barry lacks. Kongo may no longer be a title contender, but he is a solid fighter, who is no longer a one-trick pony.
Pat Barry has tried to endear himself to fans, but many are tired of the hype and want to see Barry perform on the big stage against top competition. His loss to Tim Hague was forgivable because it seemed that he just got caught, but against Mirko Cro Cop, he showed limited ability to protect himself on the ground. Barry had better trained on the ground because that is where Kongo is going to take this fight. The time is now for Barry to show he has the overall skills to succeed at this level, otherwise he’d best return to kickboxing.
As long as Kongo avoids striking exchanges with Barry, I fully expect him to take Barry down and punish him with ground ‘n’ pound. Kongo can fold with pressure, so Barry has to bring it and break the will of the Frenchman in order to win.
Tony Johnson(5-1, HW #30) vs. Derrick Lewis(4-1)
Tony Johnson is a huge heavyweight, who has found instant success outside of a submission loss to Daniel Cormier. Prior to that loss, Johnson had defeated tough veterans Tony Lopez and Kenny Garner. Johnson has had a difficult time finding fights, in attempting to gain the attention of a larger promotion. Luckily for Johnson, Bellator was already watching. Johnson will make his Bellator debut against Derrick Lewis. Lewis has talent, but is not faced anyone quite like Tony Johnson in his career. In Lewis’ only step up in competition, he lost to Shawn Jordan.
Matt Mitrione(3-1, HW #34) vs. Christian Morecraft(7-1, HW #36)
People keep waiting for Matt Mitrione to show his limited experience in MMA, but to their surprise Mitrione keeps winning. Mitrione first flashed onto the UFC scene at the Ultimate Fighter 10. Mitrione had no professional fights, and was thought to be a non-factor in the competition after being picked second to last. Mitrione went on to defeat former UFC veteran Scott Junk, before losing via submission to James McSweeney. Mitrione made his official UFC debut at the Finale where he defeated fellow ex-NFL’er Marcus Jones. That was just the beginning for Mitrione, as he continued to rack up wins and experience against Kimbo Slice, Joey Beltran, and Tim Hague. Mitrione’s training with Dick Roufus has paid huge dividends in the octagon. Now he faces mammoth-sized Christian Morecraft.
Morecraft debuted in the UFC against Stefan Struve following a 6-0 record on the independent scene. Morecraft was winning the fight with Struve until he was caught with a punch that sent him reeling. Morecraft showed promise, but had plenty of room for growth. He proved successful in his next fight as he submitted Sean McCorkle.
Mitrione will have the striking advantage, and has to avoid being taken down by Morecraft and being put on his back. Mitrione has super athleticism and endurance, but if Morecraft lays on him, Mitrione is going to find it difficult to employ his gameplan.
