UFC on Fuel TV 10 : Post Fight Stock Report

Winners

Fabrico Werdum

Werdum continues to rack up Top 10 victories. He didn’t look overly impressive as his striking and conditioning looked less than championship caliber. Yet, with a Heavyweight division absent of title contenders, Werdum’s win put him one step closer to challenging Cain for his title.

What’s Next? Werdum looks as if he will have to wait for the winner of Velasquez/dos Santos III. In the meantime, possible matchups with the winner of Overeem/Browne or Mir/Barnett look to be on the horizon. There is Daniel Cormier lingering around, but with his his rumored move down to 205 lbs., it would make little sense for the UFC to possibly risk having a title contender like Werdum eliminated from contention by a guy that is leaving the division.

Thiago Silva

I picked 11 of 12 winners for this event. My one hiccup was caused by the reemergence of Thiago Silva. I counted Silva out because of his recent troubles with passing drug tests and his questionable chin. Well, Silva’s chin held up fine and he really looked to be in great shape as he wore down Feijao before earning the finish. Silva went from possibly being released by the UFC to knocking on the door of Top 10 consideration.

What’s next? Glover Teixeira, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and Ryan Bader are all Top 10 contenders without opponents. No one seems to be standing in line to fight Glover, but a fight with Lil’ Nog at UFC on Fox 1: 3, which is supposed to take place in Brazil could be a real possibility.

Felipe Arantes

Arantes has been flying under the radar for some time. He solidified his standing in the very deep UFC Featherweight division by finishing TUF Brazil 1 runner-up Godofredo Pepey. Arantes has scored wins over Antonio Carvalho and Pepey, which should earn him a bigger fight next time out. Hopefully, Sean Shelby will get try to get Arantes a fight stateside as well to bring him a little bit more publicity.

What’s next? I expect Arantes will remain solely on Brazil fight cards. A fight with Hacran Dias or Rony Jason could be possibilities if Shelby decides to make it a Brazilian vs. Brazilian matchup. I would prefer Arantes face someone with more of a name stateside such as a Jeremy Stephens or Nam Phan.

Antonio Braga Neto

Braga Neto was formerly our #2 Middleweight ranked prospect before signing with the UFC. He quickly showed off why as he used his deadly BJJ skills to tap out Anthony Smith. Braga Neto’s striking and conditioning still make him a question mark for beating top tier competition, but he is a very talented prospect not to be underestimated.

What’s next? Tom Lawlor and Rafael Natal are both coming off wins, and considering how UFC matchmaker Joe Silva likes to pair winners vs. winners and losers vs. losers (regarding their last fights), each could be likely possibilities.

Erick Silva

Silva had performed strongly against wrestling-based fighters in the past, but coming off his loss to Jon Fitch, there were some serious questions as to Silva’s ability to be a future title contender. He erased some of that doubt by easily submitting Jason High. High was coming into the fight carrying a 7-fight win streak, but he was completely overwhelmed by Silva’s finishing skills.

What’s next? Mike Pierce would be a stiff test for Silva, but it’s one I think he is ready for. A win over Pierce would earn him a possible Top 10 spot. The only problem with this scenario is that Pierce is currently booked to fight David Mitchell on July 6. If Silva can’t wait that long, less ranked fighters Mike Pyle and Dong Hyun Kim could be options.

Losers

Rafael Cavalcante

Feijao’s debut was shocking. For a guy that I had tabbed as a future title contender, he looked completely unprepared for the limelight. His conditioning has always been a question mark, but gassing out in the 1st round is completely inexcusable at this level. The only saving grace is that he and Silva took home Fight of the Night honors.

What’s next? A fight with James Te Huna could make sense, otherwise there aren’t a ton of options for Feijao. He makes too much money to fight lower ranked guys. Maybe the UFC will have him face a rising star like Jimi Manuwa.

Jason High

High was one and done in his first run in the UFC. Unfortunately, the same exact scenario could play out following his submission loss to Silva. The UFC is still cutting fighters at a high rate, and with the UFC Welterweight roster hovering around 80 fighters, High could find himself on the chopping block.

What’s next? Possibly the regional circuit, but if not fights with Michel Prazeres or Dan Miller make the most sense.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

The fact that Minotauro is still main eventing UFC fight cards is a win in itself. Yet, this loss may have been the nail in the coffin for Nogueira’s final run towards the title. Had Big Nog beaten Werdum, he may have been 1-2 fights away from a title shot. I don’t want to be the millionth person calling for Nogueira to retire, but it would seem fitting if he can fight 1-2 more times and hopefully go out with a win in his native Brazil.

What’s next? I hope the UFC does right by Big Nog and books him against a guy with little KO power. Though a fight with Mark Hunt could be fun, I don’t think many people are looking for Minotauro to suffer a brutal KO at this stage in his career. Fights with Stefan Struve or the winner of Rothwell/Vera could be next.

Mizuto Hirota

Hirota’s stateside venture has not been fruitful. 3 fights, 3 losses. Hirota originally debuted in Strikeforce where he faced Pat Healy, but was arguably robbed of the decision. Hirota ended up cutting down to 145 lbs. and has since lost back-to-back fights against Brazilians Rani Yahya and Rodrigo Damm. Hirota had his moments in each fight, but it just wasn’t enough to sway the judges.

What’s next? The regional circuit. The UFC recently released Antonio Carvalho and Pablo Garza, both of whom were ranked higher and had a bit more name vale. Hirota is just an expendable roster spot at this point. The UFC is not heading back to Asia in the near future, and there is not much sense to flying him all the way from Japan to fight on undercards. It’s sad because Hirota showed off a ton of skill, he just couldn’t get over the hump.

Karlos Vemola

Vemola has the physicality to be a force, but it’s that same trait that has led him to push aside technicality for brute strength. All of Vemola’s UFC fights have played out the exact same way, in that he comes out strong only to fade once his cardio fails him.

What’s next? The regional circuit. Vemola needs to go back to the basics and rack up some wins to get his confidence back. He is still young and can make his way back to the UFC one day. I think his future would be better at LHW, where the skill level is a little less technical.