UFC 169 Rankings: Winners and Losers

Winners

Abel Trujillo’s ranking skyrocketed after beating former WEC champion Jamie Varner in a wild slugfest. Trujillo still has glaring holes in his game, but he has thus far made up for it with vicious KO power and a durable chin. He’s likely in line for another tough test, possibly against the likes of Jorge Masvidal or Bobby Green.

Ali Bagautinov was a somewhat surprising underdog coming into his fight against John Lineker. Bagautinov was only 2-0 in the UFC, but he somewhat outclassed Top 10 Flyweight Tim Elliott, and had a clear wrestling advantage over Lineker. Bagautinov could be in line for a title shot, considering the guys ranked ahead of him (Benavidez, Dodson), have already fought and lost to Mighty Mouse.

Alan Patrick definitely has some raw physical skills that are rare for a lightweight. Yet, there’s no arguing that he has a ways to go before reaching his true potential, and likely did not receive the judges’ nod over John Makdessi. Both fighters were tentative nearly the entire fight. Patrick did attempt a few takedowns, but outside of that, there wasn’t much to take away from Patrick’s performance besides the fact that he didn’t get knocked out from a more battle-tested Makdessi. Patrick’s ranking jumped up, not based on his fight performance, but rather the fact that Makdessi was fairly high ranked coming into the fight, and dropping Makdessi behind guys he has recently beat (Stout, Cruickshank) didn’t make sense. Thus, Patrick sits one spot ahead of Makdessi, though I think the 10 guys ranked behind him could beat him.

Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg continually lamented the fact that Neil Magny looked much improved compared to his previous octagon performances. I was in agreement as well, though I still have reservations about Magny’s long-term potential considering his lack of finishing skills. Nonetheless, Magny was previously ranked as one of the bottom 6 fighters in the UFC Welterweight division, and has since moved up about 5 spots.

Martin was technically not even ranked in the UFC’s Lightweight division prior to last night, but I usually have an idea of where a fighter will land, win or lose, heading into their UFC debut based off my time spent following prospects and fighters outside of the UFC. Martin was still somewhat of a wrestler in my eyes, who relied too heavily on his physical tools. Last night changed that impression as Martin looked outstanding with his ground game. Rashid Magomedov is no joke, and for Martin to nearly submit him, speaks volumes about his rapidly improving submission skills. So, even with the loss, Martin finds himself ranked a bit higher than I originally thought, which was right around the Vinc Pichel, Mitch Clarke range.

Losers

Tom Watson nearly dropped down 10 spots following his split decision loss to Nick Catone. Many felt Watson should have won the decision, but he should have never been in that position had he let his hands go and amped up the pressure. Instead, he let Catone institute his wrestling-based gameplan all too often. Now, sitting at 1-3 in the UFC, Watson could be on the verge of being released.

Frank Mir only dropped down one spot, but it was somewhat significant as he now finds himself outside the Top 10. Mir has lost a step, and he simply does not have what it takes to win at the elite level. It could be argued that he’s faced some of the best Heavyweights in the world in his last 4 fights, but he just has not been competitive at all. His ranking is still propped up by 2011 wins over Nogueira and Roy Nelson, but the time may be near where Mir needs to hang up the gloves.

Varner dropped a few spots in the stacked UFC Lightweight division. He’s 2-3 in his recent UFC stint, with 2 of those wins being a 1st round TKO victory over Edson Barboza and a hard-fought decision over Melvin Guillard. He was also ultra-competitive in his losses to Joe Lauzon and Gleison Tibau. No one is disputing Varner’s toughness, but some are questioning his judgement after leaving himself wide open for Abel Trujillo’s finishing punch.

The following fighters had little or no movement in the rankings:
Renan Barao, Urijah Faber, Jose Aldo, Ricardo Lamas, Alistair Overeem, John Lineker, John Makdessi, Nick Catone, Al Iaquinta, Kevin Lee, Chris Cariaso, Danny Martinez, Clint Hester, Andy Enz, Rashid Magomedov, Gasan Umalatov