UFC 154 Main Card Preview

Georges St.Pierre (22-2, #1 WW) vs. Carlos Condit (28-5, #2 WW)
What I thought would be an easy pick, has slowly, but surely gotten to be a bit more difficult to gauge. GSP is coming off a significant injury and long layoff. We have seen some fighters (Shogun Rua, Cain Velasquez, Jon Fitch, Frank Mir, Patrick Cote) return from long injury layoffs and produce lackluster results. GSP can claim he is 100%, but it is so difficult to affirm considering he accepted this fight with Carlos Condit during his injury rehabilitation process. The timing of those types of things are never guaranteed, and there has likely been a ton of pressure for GSP to show up and fight in Canada on November 17th. This fight all comes down to whether GSP still has the explosion necessary for taking Condit down. Condit has shown an active guard, but he has lost fights before due to being out-wrestled and grappled (Pat Healy, Jake Shields, Satoru Kitaoka). Those losses were over 5 years ago, and Condit has proven that his takedown defense has improved over recent years. Condit has to employ a mix of his gameplan from his wins over Dong Hyun Kim and Nick Diaz. In the Kim fight he did a great job establishing the distance and then punishing Kim with strikes when he attempted a takedown. Condit has to make GSP fear his striking when going in for the shot. In addition, Condit has to use his movement and leg kicks to keep GSP chasing after him. GSP’s conditioning has always been superb, but how will he feel taking multiple kicks to his surgically repaired knee. GSP’s jab is a huge weapon, but Condit can counter that with his spinning attacks and kicks. Condit will once again have to employ a perfect gameplan to win this fight. All it takes is one takedown from GSP to foil those plans. It is always difficult to predict how a fighter will perform after a long injury layoff, but if anyone can step up, it is GSP. Condit is capable of catching GSP with strikes and winning this fight via TKO, but GSP has just been too dominant in recent fights to risk picking against him, and lastly, remember this fight is in Canada should it be a close decision.
Pick: Georges St.Pierre

Johny Hendricks (13-1, #3 WW) vs. Martin Kampmann (20-5, #4 WW)
Martin Kampmann has been the come from behind champ as of late, having survived shaky starts against Jake Ellenberger, Thiago Alves, and Rick Story to claim victory. If Kampmann can withstand Ellenberger and Alves’ KO power, he should be able to have a chance against Hendricks. Kampmann is a very technical striker, but he has been way too willing to eat a few punches to land his own. He simply can’t keep relying on that strategy despite it having worked for him in his last few fights. Hendricks has only lost once in his career and it was via decision. He has had some close fights against T.J. Grant, Mike Pierce, and Josh Koscheck, and is known to be a bit of a slow starter. Hendricks has shown a solid beard and proved he could take a big shot in his fight with Koscheck. I think Kampmann is always a threat to pull off an upset and though I will be rooting for him to do so, I have to give the nod to Hendricks’ heavy hands.
Pick: Johny Hendricks

Francis Carmont (19-7, #18 MW) vs. Tom Lawlor (8-4, #19 MW)
Francis Carmont is quickly rising up the MW ranks after racking up 3 straight wins to start his UFC career. Carmont has not faced any stiff competition as of yet, and Lawlor should be a decent test. Lawlor is in no way considered a MW contender, but he does have a solid skill-set of heavy hands, takedowns, and submissions. Lawlor has had known conditioning issues and that could play a factor in this fight as Carmont has shown to have a good motor. I think Lawlor can win this fight with his striking, but Carmont’s overall physical tools and size may be just too much for Lawlor to handle. Throw in the fact that Carmont is fighting in Canada where he trains alongside Georges St.Pierre, and I will have to lean towards Carmont in a close fight.
Pick: Francis Carmont

Costa Philippou (11-2, #16 MW) vs. Nick Ring (13-1, #21 MW)
Costa Philippou and Nick Ring may have both competed on season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter, but they ended up taking very different paths towards establishing themselves in the UFC middleweight division. Philippou lost his preliminary fight to get into the house against Joseph Henle via submission, while Ring won his matchup and became the #1 overall pick. Ring’s TUF journey was cut short due to injury despite having defeated the eventual TUF 11 winner Court McGee. Both fighters ended up making their respective UFC debuts in 2011. Philippou lost his UFC debut to Nick Catone, having taken the fight on very short notice. He has run off 4 straight victories since, looking more and more impressive with each fight. Meanwhile, Ring is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to top MW contender Tim Boetsch. It could be argued that he was gifted a couple of decisions over Fukuda and McGee, but they were both close fights that could have swung either way. Ring is fighting in his home country of Canada so Philippou should avoid letting this fight go to the judges. Philippou has huge KO power and has shown some improved takedown defense as of late. Ring is very technical with his striking, but he is not overly active outside of his jab and leg kicks. Ring’s only way of winning this fight is getting Philippou to the ground and submitting him. I think Ring is a decent underdog pick, but Philippou has just been too reliable as of late and is on the brink of breaking into the upper echelon of the division.
Pick: Costa Philippou

Mark Hominick (20-11, #17 FW) vs. Pablo Garza (11-3, #43 FW)
Nearly 18 months ago, Mark Hominick put up a respectable effort in challenging Jose Aldo for the UFC featherweight championship, but he has fallen sharply down the rankings ever since due to losses against Chan Sung Jung and Eddie Yagin. Hominick’s recent issues have been attributed to disregarding his defense and taking way too much punishment. Against “Korean Zombie” and Yagin, it seems as if Hominick regarded each as having inferior striking, but he paid the price and is hopefully refocused. He will not have to worry about Pablo Garza’s striking at all in this fight. Outside of Garza’s devastating KO of Fredson Paixao, Garza is much more of a submission threat. Garza scored an upset victory over Yves Jabouin in 2011, but against continued stiffer competition (Poirier, Bermudez), he struggled to mount much offense due to his lack of striking and wrestling. Garza is still dangerous due to his long limbs, but he can be easily overpowered. As long as Hominick can control the distance, he should be able to pick apart Garza with strikes for the TKO finish
Pick: Mark Hominick