Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum – Main card preview

Fabricio Werdum(14-4-1, HW #3) vs. Alistair Overeem(34-11, HW #4)

It is funny how the MMA world works. Fabricio Werdum defeats the best presumed fighter in the sport, Fedor, yet across the world, a fighter who had defeated zero top 10 opponents in recent years, suddenly becomes the talk of the world. In this case though, all may be forgiven, for he, is named Alistair Overeem.

Werdum and Overeem have fought once before, back in 2006. Both fighters were competing in the opening round of the Pride 2006 Openweight Grand-Prix Tournament. Werdum was looking to cement his status as an upper-echelon heavyweight fighter following a 4-1 record in Pride, with his only loss coming to Sergei Kharitonov via split decision. Overeem was also coming in on a hot streak, winning his last 3 out of 4 fights over the likes of Kharitonov, Igor Vovchanchyn, and Vitor Belfort. Come fight night, it was fairly even going into the second round, as Overeem was dangerously attempting to work his clinch game in order to land some big knees, but may have been too leery of Werdum’s ground game to mount any significant offense. The 2nd round saw Werdum tagging Overeem with a few shots, as the fight eventually went to the ground and Werdum submitted Overeem rather easily.

Fast-forward to November 16, 2007, which is where we see the beginning of a beefed-up Alistair Overeem, destroy Paul Buentello at a Strikeforce event to win their inaugural heavyweight championship. Strangely, Overeem would not defend his belt for over two years as he returned overseas to test his skills in K–1 and dabble on the Japanese MMA scene. Overeem’s skills seemed to develop with each fight, and as his confidence grew, he began to look unstoppable. Soon, Overeem started to develop a new legion of fans who believe in this aura of invincibility that was usually only reserved for those describing Fedor Emelianenko.

Conversely, Werdum does not have any signs of invincibility surrounding his career, as he is commonly remembered for his 2–2 run in the UFC and knockout loss to Junior Dos Santos. Werdum signed with Strikeforce after his UFC release and has beaten three tough opponents, including the famous submission win over Fedor. Werdum has been on the sidelines for almost a year rehabbing an injury and much of the hype surrounding his win faded once Antonio “Big Foot”Silva handed Fedor his second straight loss.

It would be easy to claim Werdum’s win over Fedor was a fluke, but I don’t think it was. Werdum is one of the best submission artists in all of MMA, and his opponents are fully aware of his skills coming into a fight. Overeem knows this very well, as he lost to Werdum once before. His takedown defense, as of his fight with Brett Rogers, looked as strong as ever, thanks to eating his fair share of horse meat. Overeem likes to go to the clinch though, and that is where Werdum can find his opening. Otherwise, I think Werdum’s striking may open some eyes, though there is no way he should risk trying to stand and trade with Overeem for any sustained amount of time. Werdum needs to pick his spots and then go all out for the takedown. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Werdum attempt to pull guard multiple times in hopes of getting Overeem to play his game, as he did in his fight with Andrei Arlovski. Unfortunately for Werdum, it looks as if Overeem has fully matured as a fighter, and this may be his true coming out party for American fans.

Josh Barnett(26-5, HW #11) vs. Brett Rogers(11-2, HW #13)

Josh Barnett may be one of the most hated fighters in the sport, whether via promoters, fellow fighters, or fight commissions across the USA. I’m amazed he is being granted a license in the USA after three failed steroid tests. Chael Sonnen being busted once now seems so petty. Also, surprising is that Josh Barnett is actually enjoying a fairly decent promotional push by Zuffa.

It is hard to make out what is left of Barnett’s MMA career. He has hardly done anything significant since his PRIDE days, defeating Gilbert Yvel and Pedro Rizzo are the only two notable wins worth talking about. Barnett has not faced anyone relevant, so it is difficult to see if his skills have declined like fighters of his era: Fedor, Cro Cop, Nogueira. I believe they have, especially if he is fighting without any illegal substances. Luckily for Barnett, these questions are likely to be left unanswered because he is facing inexperienced Brett Rogers.

Rogers continues to be tagged as inexperienced, despite fighting Fedor, Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski. His lack of ground game and polish on his feet make him a target for naysayers. Many feel as if Rogers doesn’t have a shot against Barnett, but he has been in this role before, and succeeded(Arlovski). Unfortunately for Rogers, Barnett likely has no intentions of standing and trading with him. Barnett’s going to look for the takedown and punish Rogers with ground ‘n’ pound or submission attempts.

K.J. Noons(9-2, LW #31) vs. Jorge Masvidal(21-6, LW #45)

KJ Noons, is best known for his showdowns with Nick Diaz, the first of which one him the EliteXC lightweight championship. After one dominating title defense against UFC veteran Yves Edwards, EliteXC ran into problems and Noons moved towards boxing. Noons found mixed success though and eventually returned to MMA. Noons won 2 straight fights over Jorge Gurgel and Conor Heun in Strikeforce and despite being a title contender at 155, accepted a bout with Diaz at 170. The much-hyped sequel saw Nick Diaz punish Noons for 5 rounds, and although Noons was competitive, it was clear he did not belong at welterweight.

Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal has bounced around between lightweight and welterweight through his 27-fight career. He definitely belongs at 155, though he showed he was able to compete with the likes of Paul Daley at 170. Masvidal has always struggled with consistency, as it looks as if he lacks the desire to better his all-around game. His striking is a known commodity, but also is the lack of grappling skills. Luckily for Masvidal, his takedown defense is superb allowing him to beat top grapplers like Satoru Kitaoka, Keith Wisniewski, and Joe Lauzon.

There is no secret that both of these fighters like to keep their fights standing. Both are fully capable of scoring a knockout, though Noons has the better boxing pedigree, Masvidal has shown a solid chin, whereas Noons has been knocked out by Charles Bennett. this fight will likely come down to conditioning, which definitely will favor Noons. Masvidal has always faed in his fights and I don’t expect anything different this time out.

Daniel Cormier(7-0, HW #20) vs. Jeff Monson(42-11, HW #27)

Daniel Cormier is a fighter on the rise. Despite being only 5’11, Cormier uses elite–level wrestling to negate most size disadvantages. Cormier’s surprising striking has led many to believe he is a future top 10 stalwart. Cormier is only 7-0 in MMA, but he already holds wins over journeyman veterans Devin Cole, Soa Palelei, and John Devine. He also took out fellow prospect Tony Johnson in the 1st round via submission. This is Cormier’s first true big-name opponent though, and he has never faced a grappler like Jeff Monson. It remains to be seen how good Cormier’s submission defense is, but he likely will never have to be on his back with his wrestling skills.

Monson, at age 40, is likely on his last run with a big promotion. He has stayed active over the years, whether in MMA or grappling tournaments. Despite being in legal trouble over the last couple of years, Monson has traveled the globe taking on all comers. He has hinted that dropping the light heavyweight as of late, but despite being only 5’9, carry so much muscle mass that is unlikely at his age he would be able to make the cut. Monson’s best years are surely behind him, but riding an 8-fight winning streak, he has shown that he is still a top-level fighter, who belongs in a big promotion. Monson’s limitations usually revolve around his striking. Though he has a decent jab, he has always struggled against strikers who he can’t take down.

Cormier, I believe is going to use his wrestling to keep this fight from going to the ground, and pick months a part with his striking. I feel bad for Monson, that he is being used as a stepping stone for Cormier, but this is the nature of the business. Hopefully, Monson will be given another shot in Strikeforce because he can still be competitive against most competition, just not against the likes of a future elite-level fighter like Cormier. The time looks to be now for Cormier to show the world that he is one of the top wrestlers in all of MMA. Cormier is completely capable of beating any fighter in the heavyweight division, big things are ahead for the former Olympian.

Chad Griggs(10-1, HW #39) vs. Valentijn Overeem(29-25)

Chad Griggs has played spoiler twice and his strikeforce career, this time the tides may be turned has he faces Valentijn Overeem, brother of Alistair. Grids is a smaller heavyweight, weighing in around 230. Though he is found recent success, Griggs lacks the polish only top-level prospect. Considering he is a full-time firefighter, one can’t blame Griggs for his lack of time in the gym. Nonetheless, Griggs has taken out former professional wrestler Bobby Lashley and highly–touted prospect Gian Villante. It is commonly questioned why Valentijn has lacked the success of his younger brother. It is clear that he lacks the overall athleticism of his brother, but he also lacks the striking accuracy and power that make Alistair such a threat. Overeem’s career has had many peaks and valleys, and now riding a 3-fight winning streak, he can make people forget his 25-career losses with a win over Griggs.

Though this fight is considered an alternate bout, it is crucial to both fighters’ long-term career in Strikeforce. I believe Valentijn is going to pull off the upset. Overeem has the better arsenal of skills, and though Griggs’ wins over Lashley and Villante weren’t flukes, considering Lashley’s recent struggles in MMA and Villante being a blown up 205’er who took the bout on short notice, I believe the cards have fallen perfectly for Griggs to get to this point. Then again, if Griggs can land a few shots, Overeem is not known for his chin. Like any heavyweight fight, the one who lands the first big shot will likely end up the winner.

Predictions:
Alistair Overeem
Josh Barnett
KJ Noons
Daniel Cormier
Valentijn Overeem