MMA weekly water cooler – 05/10 – 05/16

* Strikeforce and Alistair Overeem should have consumed the mma news talk this weekend, but a crash and burn scenario coming out of Shine promotions stole some of their thunder.

* Alistair Overeem looked as dominant as many hardcore fans hoped for. Is he the man to beat Fedor? There are always what if’s when it comes to Fedor, but the fight looks unlikely to happen anytime soon. I have a strong feeling that M-1 will not be pleased with their financial earnings from the upcoming Fedor vs. Werdum fight on Showtime. No pay-per-view usually equates to smaller paydays, and without CBS, Strikeforce/Showtime will have to make up the difference.

* Antonio Silva cemented his status as a contender. He took Arlovski the distance and showed more patience than usual. A future fight with Brett Rogers looks likely.

* As for Arlovski and Rogers, their days as title contenders are officially over.

* Conversely, Rafael “Feijao”Cavalcante and Ronaldo “Jacare”Souza are on the doorsteps of title shots in their respected divisions.
– Personally, I think Cavalcante should avenge his loss to Mike Kyle, instead of being thrown to the wolves against King Mo. The problem is Strikeforce is void of 205 contenders. I think developing King Mo as a champion would be more beneficial to Strikeforce at this point. If Strikeforce signed Mark Coleman and booked him opposite King Mo, I think a lot of people would realize just how good King Mo is.

– Jacare is ready for a title shot at 185, though it looks as if Jake Shields will vacate his title. Strikeforce has a wealth of talent at 185 and they will hopefully at least consider forming a grand prix featuring Souza, Henderson, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem, Scott Smith, Cung Le, Tim Kennedy, and Matt Lindland with the winner being crowned the champion.

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* Hector Lombard looks invincible, though he’s been fighting mostly nobodies for the last 3 years. The 4 finalists in Bellator’s 185 tournament are talented, and should provide Shango a challenge. My money is on Bryan Baker to make it to the finals.

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* Returning back to Shine’s debacle, the signs of chaos were all there. Unhappy fighters were starting to share their stories, and injuries started to derail almost half of the main card. Months ago, Shine went out and signed a host of Brazilian fighters to their roster who will likely never appear for the promotion. You have to feel for all of these fighters who basically fell for a promotion’s promises of stardom in the American market.

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* The UFC released Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Tim Hague, Jonathan Goulet, Kimbo Slice, and Paul Daley following UFC 113. All of the releases make sense, save Kimbo and Hague.

– I think Kimbo deserved at least one more shot, possibly headlining a Fight Night, but I’m guessing his price tag was too high. Rumors circulated that Kimbo turned down a request to make 205 his fighting home. I think Kimbo versus Mirko Cro Cop, Stefan Struve, or Joey Beltran could have made interesting fights.

– As for Hague, it’s unfortunate that he was cut, considering he took the fight on short notice. Fighters should be rewarded for doing so.

* Paul Daley’s release was met with support throughout the mma community. Daley is obviously talented, but has to shore up his ground game. Anyone with a well-rounded fight game, has a decent chance of knocking off Daley, which still make one wonder what Kampmann was thinking standing with the Brit.

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* With UFC 114 quickly approaching, it’s fairly obvious that this pay-per-view will rely heavily on the drawing power of the ongoing feud between Rampage and Rashad. The rest of the fight card lacks marquee matchups, though there are upsets bound to happen.

* Jackson vs. Evans – I’m taking Rampage, but if the fight goes more than 1 round the tide should start to favor Rashad. Rampage has the power advantage, and Rashad just hasn’t shown a strong chin in his last 2 fights.

* Bisping vs. Miller – Very similar fighters, in that they both lack superior striking, but rely a lot on effort and heart. Bisping has struggled when he fights in the States, but I think he will turn up the heat on Miller and set a pace that Miller can’t keep. If Miller couldn’t knockout Maia, I don’t think he’ll have much luck with Bisping.

* Duffee vs. Russow – Duffee is still a bit of an unknown coming into this fight, but he likely has way too much athleticism for Russow. I think Duffee’s going to come out quickly and put Russow away.

* Lil’ Nog vs. Brilz – Lil’ Nog destroys Brilz. Brilz may get Nogueira down, but won’t be able to hold him there.

* I’ll take Sanchez, Sadollah, Escudero, Guillard, Diabate, Riley, and Forbes in the other bouts.

* As I mentioned, a lot of these fights lack the usual Joe Silva matchmaking touch. A lot of one-sided, showcase fights look to be on the horizon. I think the most likely upsets could arise from the Bisping/Miller, Duffee/Russow, and Cane/Diabate fights.

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