UFC on Fuel TV 10 Predictions : Werdum vs. Nogueira

The UFC returns to Brazil, which has become quite a regular occurrence as we reach the halfway point of 2013. This card may be lacking in overall star power, but there are some excellent matchups that should make for a great night of fights.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Nogueira has silenced most of the doubters over his last few fights, but that still does not erase the fact that he fighting on borrowed time. Nogueira has solid boxing, but his lack of speed will come back to haunt him. I would usually mention Nogueira’s BJJ as an x-factor, but not in this fight where Werdum likely has the edge. Overall, Werdum seems like he has diversified his striking enough to take home a victory. I would have chosen Werdum via decision, but since the fight is scheduled for 5 rounds, I will pick Werdum via TKO.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Werdum via TKO (Round 2)

Leonardo Santos vs. William Macario

The lackluster Season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil has produced a Finale that is not all that interesting. Santos has the BJJ credentials that would make people think he is a dangerous finisher, but he has been anything but that while competing on the show. Macario has looked like a nice prospect, but at only 21 years old, and still possessing some glaring holes in his striking and wrestling, he will have to put on a flawless show in order to avoid Santos’ ground game. In the end, I think Santos somehow gets this fight to the ground and sinks in a choke.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Santos via Submission (Round 3)

Rafael Cavalcante vs. Thiago Silva

It’s not often that the UFC would pair 2 fighters that are both coming off suspensions, but that’s exactly what Joe Silva decided to do. Thankfully, this should be one heck of a fight as neither man has shown a penchant from backing down from a brawl. Silva will have the size and possibly the wrestling advantage, but “Feijao” is the more dangerous fighter with his KO power and submissions. Silva seems to be a popular pick amongst fans, but I don’t think his chin will hold up to Feijao’s strikes.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Cavalcante via TKO (Round 1)

Erick Silva vs. Jason High

Silva has more ways to finish this fight, so I am picking him rather than siding with Jason High’s wrestling-centric gameplans. High is on a solid win streak, but his wrestling will have to be on point to keep the dangerous Silva at bay. Though Silva lost to Jon Fitch last time out, fans should remember the swift beating he put on Charlie Brenneman just one fight before. I bring up Brenneman’s name because that was the last man High lost to. Yes, I am using MMA math to somewhat predict that High’s wrestling will not stifle Silva from earning the finish.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Silva via Submission (Round 2)

Daniel Sarafian vs. Eddie Mendez

Not much is known about Mendez beyond his record on Sherdog.com. We know he was originally set to fight at 205 lbs. and he seems to fight aggressively. Sarafian is no stranger to fighting with aggression, but it will be his technical ground game that could be the difference maker in this fight. Sarafian was supposed to be one of Brazil’s future stars, but he stumbled in his debut against C.B. Dollaway. I am guessing Joe Silva has done his homework in making sure Sarafian has a winnable fight in front of his huge Brazilian fan following.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Sarafian via Submission (Round 2)

Rony Jason vs. Mike Wilkinson

This should be a showcase win for Rony Jason. Jason has the edge wherever this fight goes. The only x-factor to watch out for is conditioning, Wilkinson is tough and if he can weather some early storms it is not out of reason to see him somehow being the fresher fighter come the 3rd round. The likelihood of Wilkinson doing that is small though. Hopefully, Jason gets a bigger name in his next fight because he looks to be a future title contender.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Jason via TKO (Round 1)

Raphael Assuncao vs. Vaughan Lee

Assuncao should be fighting a Top 10 contender rather than Vaughan Lee. Lee has been exciting in all of his fights, but that same aggressiveness that led to his upset win of Kid Yamamoto is also what led to his two UFC losses. Assuncao will not have to worry about Lee’s submissions, considering his own BJJ skills, he does have to be careful that Lee doesn’t catch him with something though. Lee likes to pressure, but that should play into Assuncao’s gameplan beautifully. Assuncao is coming off a win over Mike Easton in a grueling affair and he should have no problem winning the decision here either.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Assuncao via Decision

Ronny Markes vs. Derek Brunson

This fight should be billed as two of the UFC’s brightest prospects facing off, but instead many fans are writing this fight off as a snooze fest. You can’t blame them as Markes and Brunson have done little in the form of going for finishes in recent fights. Their wrestling could cancel each other out and possibly make this a striking battle, but not likely as I see Markes strength, size, and grappling being superior to Brunson’s. If Markes could handle Aaron Simpson in the clinch, I believe he can do the same with Brunson.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Markes via Decision

Felipe Arantes vs. Godofredo Pepey

Felipe Arantes is still flying under the radar, mostly due to him being booked solely in Brazil, and his recent injury woes. Meanwhile, Pepey has been thrust into the limelight thanks to his TUF Brazil 1 runner-up experience. Pepey has worked feverishly on improving his striking, but he should not test those new skills against Arantes if he wants to win this fight. Arantes is very dangerous on his feet, and though he lacks some power, his striking should be able to carry him to victory. If Pepey wants to win, he has to bring this fight to the ground. I am banking on Arantes’ recent performances against high caliber fighters Yuri Alcantara, Antonio Carvalho, and Milton Vieira. Arantes was solid in each of those fights. Pepey can win this fight with his grappling, but I just don’t think he has the experience necessary to grind out this decision
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Arantes via Decision

Ildemar Alcantara vs. Leandro Silva

Ildemar is dropping down 2 weight classes in hopes of maximizing his dangerous finishing skills. Conversely, Silva is moving up from 155 lbs. to take this fight on a bit of short notice. Though Silva has good BJJ, he looked completely lackluster in his brief appearance on TUF Brazil 2, losing in the preliminary rounds to the non-impressive David Vieira. Silva did follow up that loss with a decision win over UFC veteran Chris Wilson. Nonetheless, this should be a showcase fight for Ildemar. Unless Alcantara has a bad weight cut, count on him winning this fight via finish.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Alcantara via TKO (Round 1)

Mizuto Hirota vs. Rodrigo Damm

The loser of this fight will likely find themselves back on the regional circuit. It’s a shame because these two fighters are truly some of the best representatives from their respective countries. Hirota gave Pat Healy all he could handle in his Strikeforce debut before transitioning over to the UFC where he lost via decision to Rani Yahya. Hirota nearly stormed back to win the fight in the 3rd round, but he could not sway the judges. Hirota has had mixed success against grapplers. If he is able to keep things standing, he’s a dangerous fighter, so he will have to attempt and bait Damm into exchanging strikes with him. This strategy could work as Damm has looked to showcase the improvements he has made with his striking. Damm needs to realize though that his striking is never going to lead to him being a Top 10 contender and he needs to go back to his grappling. Damm proved way too willing to exchange strikes with Antonio Carvalho in his last fight and he paid for it losing a close decision. I am guessing that Damm is looking to avoid the judges in this fight, so he would be wise to use his grappling superiority. The x-factor is the homefield advantage for Damm. Hirota is traveling from Japan and that could sap some of his energy. Overall, I could see this fight resembling Hirota’s decision loss to Yahya, in that Damm will score some timely takedowns before weathering a 3rd round storm from Hirota.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Damm via Decision

Karlos Vemola vs. Caio Magalhaes

Vemola’s fights always go the same way. He come barreling out of the gates looking to dismantle his opponents before slowly gassing out. If Magalhaes can weather the early storms, I believe he can use his grappling to control the powerful Vemola on the ground. Magalhaes did not put on a stellar performance last time out against Buddy Roberts. Hopefully, he has made the necessary improvements in his conditioning and striking to stay in the UFC. I like Vemola’s tenacity, but he just puts himself into too much trouble to ever feel secure about picking him to win.

[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Magalhaes via Decision

Antonio Braga Neto vs. Anthony Smith

Antonio Braga Neto was one of my top-rated prospects thanks to recent submission wins over UFC veterans Maiquel Falcao and Brock Larson. I have gone back and forth on whom I think will win this fight. On one hand, Neto’s BJJ is some of the best in the business and Smith was just submitted in his last fight against Roger Gracie. Yet, Smith showed some solid resolve in his fight with Gracie and if he can keep this fight standing, the advantage quickly leans in his favor. I just don’t think Smith can avoid Neto’s grappling for 3 rounds. Neto’s conditioning and striking are subpar, but once this fight gets to the ground it should be game over. Smith’s length, which is usually a strength will probably work against him in this fight.
[highlight color=”yellow”]Prediction:[/highlight] Neto via Submission (Round 2)

Predictions over last 3 Events: 27/37 = 73%