UFC on Fox 5 Main Card Preview

Ben Henderson  (17-2, #1 LW) vs. Nate Diaz (16-7, #3 LW)
Ben Henderson barely escaped with his UFC lightweight title still around his waist last fight. He will have another tough task in front of him in challenger, Nate Diaz. Diaz has been unstoppable since returning to the lightweight division in 2011. He has dominated 3 of the division’s best fighters in Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone, and Takanori Gomi. Diaz’s striking has never looked better and his takedown defense looked much improved against Miller. This championship fight will come down to whether Diaz can deny Henderson’s takedown attempts. Henderson has no shot at beating Diaz on the feet, but if Henderson can keep Diaz grounded or pushed up against the cage in the clinch, he can hope to hammer away at Diaz’s will and mindset. We have seen Diaz get frustrated before by wrestlers (Guida, Stevenson, Kim), where he totally seems to lose his focus and be content to sit on the bottom. Diaz is dangerous off his back, but he can’t rely on that strategy in the opening rounds of this fight. Diaz has to start out strong and make Henderson fear his punches. If Diaz can chip away at Henderson and make him desperate to score takedowns, I believe Diaz is going to catch him coming in with a guillotine or triangle. Henderson and Diaz are both freaks when it comes to conditioning, so to me this fight comes down to who has the most tools in their arsenal to finish the fight.
Pick: Nate Diaz

Mauricio Rua (21-6, #4 LHW) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (14-1, #7 LHW)
You would thinking MMA fans would learn a bit from the recent Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva fight to hold off a bit on anointing a high-level prospect as a lock pick against a battle-tested veteran. Yes, Gustafssson has already faced some tough competition compared to Erick Silva, but the way some fans are simply disregarding Shogun’s chances in this fight is laughable. Shogun’s athleticism and conditioning have taken a hit in recent years due to multiple knee surgeries, but he has more than compensated with pure toughness and will to still be a viable title contender in the light heavyweight division. Why have people forgotten Shogun’s war with Henderson and knockouts of Machida and Griffin? Shogun may not have looked stellar in his finish win over Vera, but when has Shogun not shown up to fight? His loss to Jon Jones was one-sided, but who hasn’t lost to Jon Jones in similar fashion. I think Rua is coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and wants to show everyone that he still has what it takes to win big fights. Gustafsson is coming on strong with a 5-fight win streak against respectable competition, but he has never faced someone like Shogun. I think Gustafsson could have had a shot had this fight taken place in Sweden, but here on neutral ground, Shogun is my pick to finish this fight with strikes in the 1st or 2nd round.
Pick: Mauricio Rua

B.J. Penn (16-8-2) vs. Rory MacDonald (13-1, #9 WW)
B.J. Penn’s return to the UFC is a welcome sight, but the fact that B.J. has decided to stay at welterweight has to have many wondering on Penn’s longterm commitment to earning another title shot. Penn has no business fighting at welterweight, especially considering his only recent losses at lightweight were to Frankie Edgar. Edgar has now left the division, and Penn could have stepped right in and likely been one fight away from fighting for a title. Penn vs. Nate Diaz would be a great storyline considering their roles on The Ultimate Fighter 5, but Penn is likely to retire should he lose via finish to Rory MacDonald. Unfortunately for Penn, that looks to be a strong possibility as MacDonald has a huge size and speed advantage. MacDonald’s striking is still considered high-level and we saw him tagged a bit in his fight with Che Mills, but Penn just doesn’t have the explosive striking necessary to hurt MacDonald. Penn’s striking has been relegated to his methodical jab-oriented style. MacDonald should be able to tire Penn down after the 1st round and bring the fight to the ground where his ground ‘n’ pound will likely prove too much for the former champion. Penn does not have the strength or conditioning to work off his back. Hopefully, Penn hangs up the gloves or drops down to the lightweight division where he could make one last run at the title.
Pick: Rory MacDonald

Mike Swick (15-4, #22 WW) vs. Matt Brown (15-11, #32 WW)
2012 marked the return of Mike “Quick” Swick and he looks to capitalize on that momentum and good health to inch his way back into title contention in the welterweight division. Swick will have to win a few more fights to get there, but a good start will be knocking off the red-hot Matt Brown. Brown has won 3 straight fights and has a real opportunity at breaking his journeyman title should he pull off the upset win. Swick has the overall athleticism, speed, and reach to win this fight, the question is does he have the same level of determination and grit that Brown will be taking into this fight. Swick needs to show that he can take a punch and fight through it. We saw him rattled in his fight with Paulo Thiago, so if Brown can connect it is anyone’s guess as to what may unfold. Those that remember a “vintage” Mike Swick are hoping he will come out swinging his fast hands and thrilling the crowd with a highlight-reel knockout. Swick has looked very conservative ever since dropping down to the welterweight division. His recent return seems to have inspired him to reclaim his “Quick” nickname. If Swick comes out conservative, he should be able to win this fight as well as Brown has struggled against bigger, taller fighters. This is Swick’s fight to lose, though Brown always brings the fight.
Pick: Mike Swick